In the Q1 2026 report, Peter described the St. Augustine rental market as "resilient, moderating, and selectively competitive." That characterization held through the second quarter. The summer leasing cycle delivered the expected tightening — vacancy dropped roughly 70 basis points from the Q1 reading of 4.8% — and rents nudged upward across all bedroom categories. What we did not see was a return to the frenzied conditions of 2021–2022. The market continues to reward correctly priced properties and penalize wishful thinking.
Here's the full Q2 picture for St. Johns County, and how it stacks up against the broader Northeast Florida market heading into fall.
Vacancy Rates
St. Johns County closed Q2 with vacancy around 4.1%, down from 4.8% at the start of the year. The seasonal tightening was concentrated in April and May, the prime window for families moving before the school year locks in. By late June, the pace had leveled off.
The well-priced-property rule that defined Q1 sharpened in Q2: the gap between days-on-market for correctly priced units versus overpriced ones widened further. Properties priced at or within 3% of market comps averaged 10–14 days to lease. Properties priced 8–12% above market were averaging 35–50+ days — long enough that carrying cost easily erased any theoretical rent premium.
Average Rents by Bedroom Count — Q2 2026
| Bedroom Count | St. Johns County Median | Q1 2026 Median | QoQ Change | YoY Change | Jacksonville MSA Median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Studio / 1BR | $1,595 | $1,550 | +2.9% | +2.9% | $1,405 |
| 2BR | $2,110 | $2,050 | +2.9% | +3.9% | $1,755 |
| 3BR | $2,525 | $2,475 | +2.0% | +4.3% | $2,090 |
| 4BR+ | $3,190 | $3,100 | +2.9% | +4.8% | $2,585 |
Quarter-over-quarter movement was modest and in line with seasonal expectations. The St. Johns County premium over the Jacksonville MSA held steady in the 14–24% range depending on bedroom count — the school district, lifestyle, and lower crime profile continuing to do their work.
The largest year-over-year gains are appearing at the 4BR+ level (+4.8%). Single-family homes with four or more bedrooms remain the most undersupplied segment in the county. New construction in Nocatee and Rivertown has added supply in this category, but demand from families relocating specifically for St. Johns County schools continues to absorb it.
Sub-Market Breakdown
St. Augustine Beach / Anastasia Island
The strongest performer in Q2. Peak season demand pushed 2BR units to $2,150–$2,700, with beachfront and ocean-view units hitting $2,900–$3,100 in May and June. Turnover was low — tenants in place generally renewed rather than risk losing beach proximity. For owners with vacancies this summer, the window to capture peak season rates has largely passed; fall pricing will reflect that. If you have a unit coming vacant in August, price for fall demand, not July demand.
Historic District / Davis Shores
Continued strong demand from professionals and remote workers, with 2BR units moving at $1,950–$2,400 — a step up from Q1's $1,900–$2,300 range. The structural constraint here remains supply: the character of the housing stock limits new development, which keeps the market tight by default. Well-maintained properties in this corridor continue to attract quality, long-hold tenants.
Nocatee / Ponte Vedra
The most supply-affected sub-market again in Q2. New single-family construction continued to deliver units into the rental pool, holding pricing relatively stable: 3BR homes at $2,650–$3,450, similar to Q1. The school district continues to underpin demand and prevent meaningful softening. Owners in Nocatee saw average days-on-market slightly longer than the county average — 16–22 days for well-priced units vs. 10–14 county-wide — reflecting competition from new inventory.
World Golf Village / International Golf Drive Corridor
Stable and predictable. 3BR median at $2,350–$2,650, consistent with Q1. Tenant profile tends toward families with school-age children, which translates to lower turnover and multi-year tenancies when the initial placement is done right. Slower to lease than coastal properties, but the tenants who come are worth having.
West St. Augustine / CR-210 Corridor
The workforce housing segment of the county continued to see solid absorption in Q2. 2BR units at $1,700–$2,050, slightly above Q1's $1,650–$2,000 range. Development near the SR-9B and I-95 interchange is increasing population density in this corridor, supporting rental demand. Properties that offer good condition at fair pricing lease quickly here — tenants in this sub-market are cost-conscious and comparison-shopping carefully.
What Drove Q2 Demand
The demand drivers we identified in Q1 remained intact through the second quarter:
- Remote work persistence. No meaningful change in the out-of-market relocation pattern. St. Augustine continues to attract relocated workers from Atlanta, Charlotte, and South Florida. This segment's willingness to pay is above the county median, and they tend to be stable, quality-conscious tenants.
- Interest rate lock-in. The 2020–2021 vintage mortgage holders who would historically transition from renter to buyer are still not selling. With 30-year rates remaining in the 6.5–7.0% range, the financial incentive to move up does not exist. This continues to keep well-qualified renters in the long-term market who might otherwise have purchased.
- School year timing. Q2 is when this driver peaks. Families placing themselves before the August school start date drove the majority of Q2 leasing activity. This cohort signs longer terms and has lower turnover — a 12-month lease often quietly converts to a multi-year tenancy once the kids are enrolled.
- Tourism sector stability. St. Augustine's hospitality and service employment remained healthy through Q2, supporting consistent 1BR–2BR demand particularly in the Historic District and St. Augustine Beach sub-markets.
Fall 2026 Outlook
The summer leasing peak is behind us. Here's what to expect heading into Q3 and the fall market.
Vacancy will loosen modestly. The seasonal pattern is consistent: vacancy tightens March through June as the school-year move cycle peaks, then softens in August and September as that cycle completes. We expect St. Johns County vacancy to drift back toward the 4.5–5.0% range by mid-fall. That's still a healthy market — not a cause for concern, but an important signal for owners pricing new listings in August and September.
Rent growth will moderate. The 3.8% YoY rate we saw in Q2 reflects a seasonal tailwind. Fall comps will likely show YoY growth in the 3.0–3.5% range, consistent with the sustainable moderation we've seen since the post-pandemic correction. We do not anticipate meaningful rent declines — the fundamentals are too strong. But the summer rent ceiling does not transfer to fall listings.
Watch the Nocatee new construction pipeline. Additional single-family inventory in the Nocatee and Rivertown corridors is expected to deliver in Q3–Q4 2026. Owners in that sub-market competing with new construction should ensure their properties are well-maintained and correctly priced — new units will be the comparison point for prospective tenants.
The quality-tenant pipeline remains deep. St. Johns County's desirability has not changed. The school district, the safety profile, the lifestyle draw — those are structural, not cyclical. Owners who maintain their properties and price correctly will continue to attract stable, long-hold tenants.
The Bottom Line
St. Johns County continues to be one of the stronger rental markets in Northeast Florida by almost every metric — vacancy, rent levels, demand quality, and tenant stability. Q2 confirmed what Q1 suggested: this is a market that rewards disciplined pricing and proactive management. It is not the 2022 market, and it is not under pressure. It is a healthy, moderating market that keeps producing solid returns for owners who approach it correctly.
If you want a property-specific analysis rather than market-level data, a free rental analysis gives you the actual comp picture for your address and sub-market.